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Unlike professional
prognosticators, like the state of the art, the very best and the most
reliable Nate Silver of 538.com The
Dismal Political Economist believes that he and he alone can provide the best
forecast of the outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election. By analyzing thousands of pieces of
information in his own small mind, he can tell with near 100% accuracy which
candidate will win the electoral votes of each state. (note: the definition of 'near' is however close he actually comes to the final result.)
Here are the results
that one will take place in November.
Yes, in contradiction to conventional wisdom it shows a Romney
victory. The reasons for this are that
by being subjective the projection can take into account events that are yet to
happen. For example, the Obama health
care plan is likely to be dealt at least a partial and maybe fatal blow in late June with the Supreme Court
decision. And the gazillions of dollars
of negative ads run by billionaires are going to have a big impact, something
that no poll or mathematical analysis can take into account.
Another example, this projection has Wisconsin in the Republican column. This is based on the expectation of a big win for Gov. Scott Walker in his recall election. That will provide momentum in Wisconsin and prove that massive amounts of money and negative advertising work. This will produce even more money and negative advertising in the fall. A win for Mr. Romney in Wisconsin is expected here to carry over into Minnesota.
Another example, this projection has Wisconsin in the Republican column. This is based on the expectation of a big win for Gov. Scott Walker in his recall election. That will provide momentum in Wisconsin and prove that massive amounts of money and negative advertising work. This will produce even more money and negative advertising in the fall. A win for Mr. Romney in Wisconsin is expected here to carry over into Minnesota.
Momentum and intensity are factors that
can never be measured, and so cannot be factored into polls or into a model like Nate
Silver uses. And momentum is moving
towards Mr. Romney. He will be making
news soon with a V. P. choice, he has the favorable news reporting on lawsuits
filed by Catholic organizations against the requirement to make birth control
services available to their employees and he has the news industry lining up in
his corner.
So here is the 50
state projection for November 2012, totally valid until it changes.
The purpose of making
a projection this early is twofold. The
first is to show the trends in the voting by electoral vote. To do that this table will be updated from
time to time, and when that happens there will be a measure of the
trend in the election.
The second goal is to
demonstrate the insight and brilliance of this site. Yes, that should be obvious but some viewers
may not be quite that perspective.
Finally notice that if Wisconsin and New Hampshire fall to Mr. Obama, and everything else stays the same the electoral college is tied. The movie title, 'Nightmare on Pennsylvania Avenue'.
Finally notice that if Wisconsin and New Hampshire fall to Mr. Obama, and everything else stays the same the electoral college is tied. The movie title, 'Nightmare on Pennsylvania Avenue'.
you crazy rightwing asshole....
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