Sunday, October 21, 2012

Five Days After the Second Presidential Debate The Polls Have Not Swung Decisively for Mr. Obama

So the Current Electoral College Forecast Prevails – Mr. Romney to Win

The second Presidential debate did one thing for Mr. Obama, it stopped the momentum towards Mr. Romney.  But it did not reverse it, and now state polls are showing the North Carolina is probably lost to the Obama camp, Florida is likely lost and Ohio is trending towards a tie, which means it is moving towards, not away from Mr. Romney.

So the guaranteed electoral college forecast still looks like this.




States













Certain

Competitive

Certain

Competitive

Romney

Romney

Obama

Obama









Alabama
9


California
55
Michigan
16
Alaska
3


Connecticut
7
Iowa
6
Arkansas
6
Arizona
11
Delaware
3
Maine
4
Georgia
16
Florida
29
D. C.
3
New Jersey
14
Idaho
4
Missouri
10
Hawaii
4
Pennsylvania
20
Indiana
11
Montana
3
Illinois
20
Washington
12
Kansas
6
Nevada
6
Maryland
10
Minnesota
10
Kentucky
8
New Hampshire
4
Massachusetts
11
New Mexico
5
Louisiana
8
North Carolina
15
New York
29


Mississippi
6
Virginia
13
Oregon
7


North Dakota
3
Wisconsin
10
Rhode Island
4


Nebraska
5
Colorado
9
Vermont
3


Oklahoma
7
Ohio
18




South Carolina
9






South Dakota
3






Tennessee
11






Texas
38






Utah
6






West Virginia
5






Wyoming
3









Totals



Certain
167

128
Certain
156

87
Competitive
128


Competitive
87


Total
295


Total
243




with Mr. Obama still needing to pick up 27 electoral votes.  He can do so by adding Ohio and Wisconsin to his list, or leave Ohio alone and get Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Virginia.  But if Pennsylvania or Michigan start to go away you can stick a fork into the Obama campaign, it's done.

The problem is that Mr. Obama made Mr. Romney a credible candidate in the first debate, and that can only be reversed by a stupid mistake by Mr. Romney.  And the clock is running and the game is almost over, not a lot of time to make that mistake.

Finally notice what happens if Mr. Obama gets New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.  Not  pretty picture.

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