Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Ten Questions That Will be Answered on Election Day

And an 11th That Can Be Answered Right Now

Tomorrow the election will not only be over, but all of us who comment on political affairs can write about how the outcome, whatever it turns out to be, was inevitable.  So here are 10 questions that will be answered after Tuesday.  They are also ten things that were certain to happen ex post facto.

  1. Can unqualified Senate candidate Linda McMahon, a Republican in a Democratic state win in Connecticut if she spends $100 million of her own money?  Sure she could, the state sent Joe Lieberman to the Senate many times.

  1. Can Republican candidates be so repugnant that even Republicans won’t vote for them?  A good test with Richard Mourdock in Indiana and Todd Akin in Missouri.

  1. Do the quantitative models of Nate Silver, which have accurately predicted elections in the past hold up in 2012?  Let’s hope so.

  1. Will Maine’s soon to be Senator-elect Angus King, an independent demonstrate no principles whatsoever and caucus with the party that does not have control of the Senate?  Don’t be silly.

  1. Will former Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey be able to explain why he ever thought he could win back his Senate seat?  Probably not.

  1. A Miami Herald poll has Romney ahead by 7 points in Florida, an NBC/Marist poll has Obama ahead, which is right?  This is Florida, both could be wrong.

  1. Did Karl Rove’s hundreds of millions make a difference?  Probably not since it looks like Karl spent most of the money on Karl.

  1. Will a state like North Dakota go massively for Mr. Romney but send a Democratic to the Senate in an open seat election?  Could be, North Dakotans seem to be somewhat rational conservative voters.

  1. Will California voters approve higher taxes to fund education?  Maybe not, because Republicans believe that free education means free to the taxpayers.

  1. If Massachusetts elects Elizabeth Warren to the Senate, will that be enough to atone for electing Mitt Romney Governor and propelling him to national prominence?  Maybe if they elected three Elizabeth Warren’s it would.

Finally a question that can be answered now.

11.  Can The Dismal Political Economist do a better job of predicting elections than professionals like Nate Silver?  Good grief no, why would anyone expect that.

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